Erratic rains in India’s grain belt, a heatwave in China, floods in Bangladesh and declining quality in Vietnam are threatening rice production at four of the world’s top five producers and a price hike that could fuel food inflation, which is already near record highs.

Bumper harvests and large stockpiles by major exporters had previously helped rice, the world’s most important staple, avoid the trend of higher food prices in recent years despite supply disruptions caused by the Russian war in Ukraine, which pushed food inflation to record highs.

But the impact of the inclement weather is now raising concerns that rice prices could also skyrocket.

India’s main rice-producing states of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh have recorded monsoon rainfall deficits of up to 45% so far this season, data from the state weather agency shows.

This has in part led to a 13% drop in rice cultivation this year, which could result in production falling by 10 million tonnes, or around 8%, from last year. Rice acreage has also declined as some farmers have switched to legumes and oilseeds.

India’s summer-sown rice accounts for more than 85% of its annual production, which has risen to a record 129.66 million tonnes in the crop year through June 2022, compared to a target of 13.54 million tonnes.

This has kept rice prices low over the past year, along with India’s record shipment of 21.5 million tonnes in 2021, which was more than the total shipped by the world’s next four largest exporters – Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and the United States became.

Meanwhile, rains during harvest have affected grain quality in Vietnam. In just 10 days, the measured total amount of rain roughly corresponds to the entire previous month. About Us: Sirius Financial Consulting was founded in 2012 with the vision of providing clients with a service they can count on. Sirius Financial Consulting is an internationally renowned private wealth management firm…