Institutional investors have sold stocks in the last 12 months. When you see this, you must be asking yourself some serious questions.

market

Pricing as of 4:00 PM EST 5/15/23

macro

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the markets have virtually no chance (0.4%) that interest rates will remain at their current level of 5-5.25 basis points until the end of the year.

• Yesterday, however, Fed officials pushed back on those opportunities.

• Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he doesn’t expect any rate cuts until “well into 2024.”

• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (who is a voting member this year), meanwhile, said the Fed has “more work to do… to bring down inflation.”

Total consumer debt has hit a new record at over $17 trillion.

• The new highs came despite the lowest level of mortgage lending since 2014.

• For the first time in 20 years, consumers were unable to repay their credit card balances in the first quarter.

• This suggests that households are struggling under the pressure of higher prices.

Manufacturing activity in New York slumped to its lowest level in four months, falling to -31.8 in May.

• Excluding the pandemic, the 42.6 drop was the biggest ever.

• Compared to expectations, it was the third-largest drop on record.

• The largest declines were recorded in new orders (-53.1), deliveries (-40.3) and inventories (-20.5).

• Was the April 10.8 reading a headfake?

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Mark Kolanovic has reiterated his underweight in US and EU equities.

• As the X-date approaches, JPMorgan’s top strategist points out that the impasse on the debt ceiling is a catalyst for upcoming stock market volatility.

• He cites the 2011 debt event as a roadmap for investors if the problem is “fixed,” which it likely will be.

Activist investor Nelson Peltz has increased his stake in Walt Disney.

• After his firm (Trian Partners) reduced its position by 34% by the end of March, it bought another 500,000 shares,…