Since the beginning of Covid, not only have our opposition leaders apparently not learned anything, but they behaved as if the disease would yield to their wishful thinking and business/political needs. As we will explain below, the Anglo circle media and many public health figures who should know better are adjusting Omicron as much as possible. This is the worst reaction right now, just like late January to February 2020.
When you are dealing with an event that may bring catastrophic consequences, such as the critical state of the reactor or the water on the coast being pulled back, this may indicate that the next wave is a tsunami. The prudent response is to assume the worst case and act accordingly. Action.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb and co-authors Joseph Norman and Yaneer Bar-Yam clearly explained the possibility of a pandemic on January 26, 2020 (note that they used the word “p” long before entering a decent conversation) mean Acting quickly and proactively is essential. I would take the liberty to quote freely, but I strongly recommend that you re-read (or re-read) the entire short article:
Obviously, due to the increase in connectivity, we are dealing with an extreme fat-tail process, which increases propagation in a non-linear way , The fat tail process has special attributes that make traditional risk management methods inadequate.
General (non-naive) precautionary principle  Describe the conditions under which actions must be taken to reduce the risk of bankruptcy, and traditional cost-benefit analysis must not be used. These are devastating problems, and over time, exposure to tail events can lead to some kind of ultimate extinction. Although the probability of human beings surviving one such event is very high, over time, the probability of surviving from repeated exposure to such an event eventually becomes zero. Although individuals with limited life expectancy can repeatedly take risks, they must never take the risk of bankruptcy at the system and collective level. In terms of technology, the precautionary principle applies when the traditional statistical average is invalid because the risk is not ergodic.
Next, we solve the problem of naive empiricism in discussions related to this issue.
Transmission rate: According to historical estimates of the spread of pandemics, especially the spread of current pandemics, the rapid increase in traffic connections in recent years has underestimated the spread…
Reproduction rate: The estimated value of the virus reproduction rate R0-the average number of cases that a case produces in other uninfected people during the infection period-biased downward…
mortality rate: Due to the lag between the number of confirmed cases, the number of deaths, and the number of reported deaths, there is also a downward bias in mortality and morbidity.
A rapidly spreading emerging pathogen that is becoming more and more deadly: With the increase in transportation, we are about to transition to conditions where extinction becomes certain, because of the rapid spread and the selective advantage of increasingly worse pathogens…
Fatalism and inaction: Perhaps because of these challenges, the common public health response is fatalistic, because it believes in powerlessness and accepts what is about to happen. This response is incorrect, because the impact of correctly selected unconventional interventions can be very high.
Reread the last paragraph. Public health officials are touting the combination of Pollyianism and futile (“We must learn to live with it”) to rationalize their incompetence or lack of determination in dealing with Covid. In any case, this trend will work, but because public officials are unwilling to take active protective measures and restrict retail, restaurants, hotels, airlines…it is recommended that families should put health before happy holidays.
Hot topics on Twitter are revealing…not a good way. I have checked it many times in the past 8 hours, but Omicron is clearly absent:
Likewise, fake news is over-magnified. We had to deal with comments about misleading stories in Torygraph many times, not the main place for scientific reporting (for example, the Daily Mail is much better, it directly provides a detailed but layman-friendly explanation of the new paper) And was quickly picked up by other places, The South African doctor who saw Omicron for the first time said only mild symptoms. Dr. Angelique Coetzee herself objected to her wording being carefully selected, but strangely, her efforts to correct the report hardly worked. E.g:
A widely circulated quote from a South African doctor that Omicron causes only mild symptoms is taken out of context.She refers to a small group of young, healthy people and warns of serious diseases in other groups https://t.co/QNf2WGRwAJ pic.twitter.com/hJ3M3VglXW
— BNO Press Room (@BNDesk) November 27, 2021
In contrast, South Africa’s data speaks for itself:
SA COVID Update November 27
• Highlight yesterday’s changes
• New enrollment every week
• Number of hospital deaths per week pic.twitter.com/j0U9xS46UN
-Sukhnaidu (@suga2503) November 27, 2021
Take a quick look at the major provinces:
The average value of Gauteng exceeded 1000 points yesterday, and the increase was very rapid.
WC, KZN and EC have all turned in the past few days and are now rising. pic.twitter.com/kXa0fLEmLP
-Sukhnaidu (@suga2503) November 27, 2021
But now there is an official happy conversation, not a wrongly constructed happy conversation, from South Africa. According to the text provided by Sky News related to the interview with South Africa COVID-19 consultant Professor Barry Shub:
… Omicron variants are spreading rapidly across the country.
Professor Barry speculated that the sheer number of mutations may cause the virus to be “not as suitable as the Delta variant that is known to respond well to vaccines.”
GM’s stunned response: “How exactly does the mutation destroy its stability and at the same time make the epidemiological curve go vertical?”
For those who have a strong physique:
I can hardly pass this palaver.It’s gratifying that when the interviewer obviously asked displeasedly, “You’ve said this many times, [Delta] Will it become the main variant we have to deal with? “
Contrast this with the views of GM, based on discussions of Twitter experts (just like the aerosol debate, showing the best state of Twitter: sharing information and ideas in real time) and selected websites:
We will see what happens, but based on the current situation, once this happens to the elderly in the West, if the characteristics of the spike sequence are indeed as expected, then a large number of people will die. 3 doses And the 2 doses 10 months ago are fully cooked. Every scientist who has actually studied spikes and made speeches in the past 20 months is very pessimistic.
GM also mentioned a disturbing similarity from veterinary medicine:
It takes at least two weeks to neutralize the data.
They need to order DNA, create a fake virus, then verify it, and then perform the actual test. Even if it is a full-time job, it takes a while. Although the people of South Africa may have started doing this a long time ago.
The terms “serotype” and “strain” will be avoided at all costs.
If you start talking about serotypes, you will immediately admit that the mass infection policy is stupid, and considering the consequences, it is an outright crime.
You are also risking a serious discussion about one thing that has not been involved at all for some mysterious reason since the beginning of the pandemic-the IBV literature. IBV is a chicken coronavirus that is very similar to COVID in many manifestations. They have a vaccine against it, but this is a never-ending game of Red Queen fighting against new serotypes and variants of moles. The previous vaccines did not work at all. Obviously, we have not seen some examples of truly drastic evolutionary jumps on COVID, but it may happen in the future. One can speculate why no one has ever discussed this-either because no one cares about the veterinarian, few people know (really), or because no one wants to talk about its effects. But people who study coronavirus do know. This is why no well-known people say that vaccines can solve this problem, it can alleviate the common cold, “herd immunity” or any similar problems.
The mafia of IM Doc was mainly vaccine enthusiasts. Some old guys have reservations about the limited transmission effect between them and Delta. Now they are refreshed:
My virologist friend [major city] -Not a corona expert-Reported to me on Friday that this pair of pants was officially eliminated in virology departments across the country.
Yes-IBV did show up at a conference I attended on Friday. Please note-not from the speaker, but from someone in the audience I don’t know. All the speaker can say is that he is not very familiar with it-but there are some very disturbing similarities. He went on to add that the coronavirus experts he knows are deeply concerned about this development and that it may “change the rules of the game.” When the inevitable vaccine problem arises-the speaker is definitely no longer RAH RAH RAH like in the past. In fact, he became quite lonely. I know that the smart kids in the room already know that we have a serious problem.
Even if the optimist’s judgment of the severity of the infection is correct, considering that Omicron is much more transmissible, this is not a big deal except that it is significant and may completely escape current vaccine and monoclonal antibody treatments. breakthrough:
16) Let us assume that it is “milder”-but even if it is milder than delta, the increased infectivity and/or immune escape will still make it more dangerous than delta. The exponentially increasing cases are still exponentially increasing hospitalizations and deaths! ~@lisa_iannattone pic.twitter.com/snYNv65utG
— Eric Fegelding (@DrEricDing) November 29, 2021
at the same time:
According to NTV, as concerns about omicron variants increase, Japan will close its borders to foreign businessmen and students, except those permitted for humanitarian or other special reasons https://t.co/5jFzeYB05J
— Bloomberg (@business) November 29, 2021
The Israeli authorities announced that in response to Omicron’s concerns, Israel is banning all foreigners from entering the country. The ban is expected to last for two weeks before the government approves it. https://t.co/5WXfODWUVM
CNN International (@cnni) November 28, 2021
The UK is not very serious as usual:
To date, the most important Omicron plan was announced today @Boris Johnson The PCR test was carried out within two days of arrival in the UK and isolated until a negative result. However, if possible, Omicron has already been sown here, and it is of little use.
-Robert Peston (@Peston) November 27, 2021
Two days after someone arrives are eternal, and then (unless you are dealing with an ultra-fast laboratory), it takes 24 hours, usually 48 hours to get results.
New York has declared a state of emergency and has taken at least one concrete step to restrict elective surgery (the press calls this a ban, but it is not the case). From the New York Post:
The decree restricting non-essential surgery will apply to hospitals with limited capacity-defined as 10% or less of the available bed capacity.
The new agreement will take effect on Friday, December 3, and will be re-evaluated based on the latest COVID-19 data on January 15.
We have a pleasant overnight news. In addition to the revision of the UK cases from 2 to 3, they have also increased to 9:
I will provide the latest information on the current situation in Scotland and what we know #Omicron So far, and what we can do to help contain the spread in the Covid briefing @GregorSmith Dr 10.30 am https://t.co/anNoHG7JLy
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) November 29, 2021
As we often say, it would be better if we were wrong, but now is the time for pessimism to be your friend.