compass point Analyst Chris Allen updated Coinbase Global Inc COIN from Neutral to Buy and raised the price target from $75 to $100.

The analyst provided management with a minor update to revenue and Adjusted EBITDA estimates for the fourth quarter of 2022.

Allen revised Q4 ’22 revenue/EBITDA estimates slightly higher to $563 million/($167 million) from $556 million/($185 million), lowering the adjusted EBITDA estimate for the Bringing full year 2022 to ($414M), in line with COIN’s guidance that it would not exceed a $500M EBITDA loss for the year.

The analyst expects 1Q23 sales/EBITDA of $633m/($76m), in line with COIN’s January guidance for a 25% reduction in operating expenses compared to Q4’22 due to the layoff of 950 employees reflected by COIN.

Allen prepared revenue/EBITDA estimates for CY24 of $4.5bn/$745m, reflecting a solid return to growth and profitability as it emerges from the weak macro environment and begins a new crypto cycle.

Allen believes that COIN is well positioned to gain market share, particularly among US retail investors, when the crypto bull market returns, which is expected to begin in late H23 and continue into 2024. Due to COIN’s cost cutting efforts, Allen expects COIN to return to EBITDA profitability in 2H23.

While COIN is currently facing regulatory uncertainties related to several aspects of its business, including staking-as-a-service, institutional custody and broader regulatory crackdown on the industry, he believes most issues are unlikely to have a material adverse impact on COIN will have surgeries.

The analyst saw continued regulatory headline risk as almost certain, which he believed would lead to volatility in stocks in the short and medium term.

In the longer term, given the potential revenue opportunities associated with its trading and staking businesses amid rising crypto adoption, its recent efforts to contain costs, and its solid reputation, COIN will weather the crypto winter but thrive on the downside.

Price promotion: COIN shares traded 5.21% lower at $62.17 on the last check Friday.