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New data from our old New Jersey legislation map shows that the Democrats are not at risk of losing this fall.


The existing map was drawn in 2011 and used for the first time, but the retention time will be longer than planned.Last year, voters Passed the constitutional amendment If New Jersey does not receive the census data required for rezoning by February 15th, the state requires the state to use current legislative boundaries in the 2021 elections, and this is what ultimately happened. (The Virginia House of Representatives, which We have previously released the 2020 election data It will also use its 2011 map to hold this year’s elections. )

Now, to the numbers.Joe Biden won New Jersey 57-41, which allowed him to There are 29 legislative districts and Donald Trump has 11. The blue team also enjoys 52-28 Edge is being assembled and a Senate 25-15 majority, Although as we will discuss, Republicans have more cross seats in this year’s election.

It’s hard to believe now, but the Republicans entering the 21st century have a majority in every House, and their control of the governor’s residence has given them three consecutive legislative titles.However, shortly after, the situation of Republicans began to deteriorate: the Democrats overthrew Congress and the governorship in 2001, and the two parties Power sharing agreement After they are tied in the Senate. Although the Republican Party won the governorship elections in 2009 and 2013, the Blue team completely controlled the House of Lords only two years later and never looked back.

We will start with Parliament, and each region currently sends two Democratic or two Republican members to Trenton. (The last time any constituency split the vote and elected a Democrat and a Republican Is 2015.) There are a total of eight Republicans representing Biden’s turf, and two Democrats from Trump’s electoral district.

The bluest seat held by the Republican Party is LD-21, which is the seat of parts of Morris County, Somerset County, and Union County in the New York City area. Mitt Romney won 52-47 here in 2012, but this is one of the many suburban seats in the country during the Trump era. In the Trump era, the top of the ticket swung sharply to the left: Hillary Clinton in 2016 Won the area 53-43, and Biden won 58-40 last year. However, this shift did not completely suppress votes.Minority Leader Jon Bramnik First place with 26% of the votes In his last game of 2019, the minority party whip Nancy Muñoz defeated her Democratic opponent 25-24 and won the second seat.

At the same time, the only Trump seat held by the Democratic Party is in LD-03, a South Jersey constituency that is developing in the opposite direction. Barack Obama won by 55-44 in 2012, but four years later Trump won by 50-46, and Trump won again in 2020, albeit by 50-48. But as in LD-21, the Democrats rejected the vote: Congressman John Burzichelli (John Burzichelli) Win 28% in 2019 As current colleague Adam Taliaferro Defeated his nearest Republican opponent 27-23.

We will turn to the Senate, where there are five Republicans from the Biden seat, and LD-03 is once again the Trump seat held by the Democrats. That Democrat is Steve Sweeney, Powerful long-term president of the Senate He has angered many people in the party for most of his career. In 2017, the last time Sweeney voted, the New Jersey Educational Association even took an unusual step Support his Republican opponents, But that didn’t stop the incumbent Win a very expensive election 59-41.

On the contrary, the bluest Senate seat held by the Republicans is LD-16. This is a seat made up of four counties. It depends on who you ask. Located entirely in Central Jersey or North Jersey(The existence of Central New Jersey itself is still a controversial topic in some circles. Democratic Governor Phil Murphy once called it “a bit like Camelot’s mysterious kingdom.” However, Murphy, Later explicitly tweeted, “As the great Governor of New Jersey, I hereby declare that Central New Jersey does exist.”)

This constituency supported Obama with a score of 53-45 in 2012, and since then it has become more democratic: Clinton won 55-41 here, and Biden won by a landslide 60-38 last year.Longtime Republican Senator Christopher Bateman 50.5-49.5 held In 2017, his retirement gave Congressman Andrew Zwicker the opportunity to change seats for the blue team. Zwicker’s Republican enemy is Michael Pappas, He won his brief moment in the political spotlight when he gave a speech in the House of Representatives in 1998 Tribute Said to the special prosecutor investigating the Clinton White House: “Blink, blink, Kenneth Starr/Now we see how brave you are.”

The Republican Party is also defending another vacant seat, the nearby and aforementioned LD-21. The constituency is held by Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr., who lost to the current Democratic President Tom Malinowski in the fierce competition for the 7th Congressional District in 2020. ).However, Keane decided not to seek re-election in order to Focus on the rematch with Malinowski. The Republicans are sending Bramnick, and the Democrats are running Mayor of Roselle Park Joseph Signorello.

A total of three legislative districts are also represented by a senator on one side and a pair of legislators on the other side. LD-02 is the 55-44 Biden district in Atlantic County, South Jersey. It was elected Republican State Senator Chris Brown and Democrats Vincent Mazzeo and John Amato.However, Brown Resign this summer Serving in Murphy’s administration, Republicans appointed former Congressman Vince Polistina to replace him. This fall, Polistina will face Mazzeo, who is seeking promotion. Bateman’s retired LD-16 is also located in a similar position.

The only constituency with Democratic senators and two Republican senators is LD-08, where state senator Dawn Addiego converted the party to Join the Democratic Party A little more than a year after winning the Republican re-election. This fall, Addiego will face the South Jersey seat of Republican Representative Jean Stanfield, which supports Biden 53-46.

We will discuss another unusual aspect of New Jersey politics. In the past, it was quite common for legislators to serve as local municipal offices at the same time. This practice is called “double dip” locally. The legislature passed a law in 2007 that ended this practice, but it allowed any affected incumbents to retain these two positions as long as voters continue to re-elect them. The four Democrats who will be re-elected this year still remain in these two positions, including state Senator Brian Stark, who is also the mayor of Union City and an important figure in Hudson County.

Oh, as for Asbury Park? It is located at LD-11 and supports Biden with a 55-43 vote. The boss is a well-known voice actor of the Democratic Party, so if one day his seat becomes vacant, maybe he is really born to run…

PS Since the announcement of the results of the presidential election for the New Jersey Congressional District Earlier this year, We received information from Essex County that allowed us to publish more accurate calculations for Districts 8, 10, and 11. The tenth place changed from 82.8-16.4 Biden to 84.2-15.0 Biden, and the eighth place also changed from 73.1-25.9 Biden to 71.8-27.2 Biden. The 11th place, the most competitive among the three, changed the least, from 52.9-45.8 Biden to 52.7-46.0 Biden.





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