As extreme weather grows more frequent and costly, a new study by Barcus Arenas reveals the U.S. states most at risk of natural disasters. Drawing on more than four decades of FEMA disaster declarations (1980–2024), the analysis identifies the regions where tornadoes, floods, wildfires, and hurricanes strike most often — and where residents face the greatest long-term risks.
The findings highlight that disaster vulnerability is far from evenly distributed: southern and midwestern states dominate the list, with Oklahoma, Texas, and Georgia ranking highest. Experts say the results raise urgent questions about insurance, infrastructure, and community resilience as climate volatility continues to escalate.
Key Findings from the Study
- Oklahoma is the most disaster-prone state, with 173 FEMA-declared events since 1980. Tornadoes remain its most common threat.
- Texas ranks second with 171 declarations, spanning hurricanes, droughts, wildfires, and floods. The state has absorbed more than $300 billion in disaster losses over the past two decades.
- Georgia, Illinois, and Missouri round out the top five, with frequent tornadoes, severe storms, and recurring floods driving their rankings.
- Tornadoes are the most common type of disaster nationally, followed by hurricanes and flash floods.
- High disaster frequency drives up insurance premiums, strains infrastructure, and forces difficult choices for fast-growing states in vulnerable regions.
Top 10 States Most Vulnerable to Natural Disasters (1980–2024)
| Rank | State | Total Disasters | Notable Risks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma | 173 | Tornadoes, severe storms, flooding |
| 2 | Texas | 171 | Hurricanes, droughts, wildfires, floods |
| 3 | Georgia | 129 | Tornadoes, hurricanes, wildfires |
| 4 | Illinois | 126 | Tornadoes, severe storms, and flooding |
| 5 | Missouri | 118 | Tornado swarms, severe storms |
| 6 | North Carolina | 117 | Hurricanes, coastal flooding, wildfires |
| 7 | Mississippi | 97 | Tornado outbreaks, flash floods |
| 8 | Louisiana | 97 | Hurricanes, flooding, sea-level rise |
| 9 | Florida | 84 | Hurricane strikes, inland flooding |
| 10 | Alabama | 82 | Tornado swarms, severe thunderstorms |
State-Level Snapshots
- Oklahoma: America’s most disaster-prone state, with more than 170 FEMA declarations. Its central location makes it a tornado epicenter, with billions spent on storm recovery each decade.
- Texas: Nearly every type of disaster affects Texas. In 2022 alone, the state battled more than 12,500 wildfires. High population growth in flood- and storm-prone areas intensifies risk.
- Georgia: With 129 declarations, Georgia faces both tornadoes and hurricane remnants. Increasing wildfire risk has driven insurance premiums higher in rural and coastal areas.
- Illinois: Floods and winter storms dominate its 126 declarations. Major river systems make the state highly susceptible to flash flooding and ice damage.
- North Carolina: Hurricanes, wildfires, and rising coastal flood risk have produced 117 FEMA declarations. Flooding has increased by 30% in the past decade alone.
- Mississippi & Louisiana: Tied with 97 disasters each, both states remain highly exposed. Mississippi led the nation in tornado counts in 2022, while Louisiana’s coastal parishes face subsidence, flooding, and rising seas.
- Florida: With 84 declarations, Florida faces a steady stream of high-intensity hurricanes and billion-dollar losses nearly every storm season.
- Alabama: Tornado swarms and severe weather contribute to its 82 declarations. The state’s geography funnels storms directly into populated corridors.
Regional Divide and National Impact
The report makes clear that disaster risk is concentrated in specific regions, particularly Tornado Alley, the Gulf Coast, and the Atlantic seaboard. These areas endure repeated billion-dollar storms, while the Northeast and parts of the West report significantly fewer disaster declarations.
“What we’re seeing is a convergence of risk factors,” said a spokesperson for Barcus Arenas PLLC. “Southern and midwestern states are not only more exposed to extreme weather, but they are also experiencing some of the fastest population growth. That means more people, homes, and businesses are directly in harm’s way.”
The spokesperson added: “Frequent disaster declarations don’t just mean property damage — they mean higher insurance costs, mounting recovery bills, and long-term stress on local economies. Understanding where disasters hit hardest is essential for policymakers and residents alike.”
Methodology
The study analyzed FEMA disaster declarations issued between 1980 and 2024 across all 50 states. Data was cross-referenced with NOAA and NCEI records for storm, flood, and wildfire frequency; U.S. Census Bureau data on population exposure; and insurance and environmental data from the Insurance Information Institute (III) and the EPA. Local insights from state emergency management agencies were also incorporated.
