HomeStockThe December employment report is expected to be strong, and Europe and...

The December employment report is expected to be strong, and Europe and the United States have no impact yet


A sign outside a restaurant on Deer Park Avenue in North Babylon, New York, shows that all positions will open on November 12, 2021.

John Paraskevas | Newsday | Getty Images

Although some companies require employees to work from home again temporarily due to the rapid spread of Covid omicron variants, it is expected that December recruitment will be strong and broad-based.

According to Dow Jones data, economists forecast an increase of 422,000 jobs in December, twice the number of 210,000 in November. The unemployment rate is expected to decline by 0.0 percentage points to 4.1%.

“This should be better than what we saw in November. The unemployment rate should drop a little bit. The main message from this is that the economy should be a loser in full employment, and it is one step closer to the Fed tightening policy,” Barker Said Michael Gabon, chief U.S. economist at Lai.

The Fed has Predict interest rate hikes in the third quarter This year, Gabon said that strong employment data will strengthen the central bank’s momentum to raise interest rates as soon as March.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said: “The employment situation is good enough.” “We still have lost 3.9 million jobs, but the Fed has decided that we are in full employment. We may You will see an unemployment rate of 4.1%, which is lower than the Fed’s full employment level.”

According to Dow Jones data, average hourly wages in December are expected to increase by 0.4%, or 4.2% year-on-year, and November’s increase of 4.8% year-on-year.

This November Consumer Price Index It rose by 6.8%, the fastest growth rate since 1982. If prices continue to rise and wages also rise, people are worried that a self-sufficient wage and price spiral may emerge.

“The problem with the Fed is that they worry that the inflation we are seeing becomes ingrained,” Swank said. “Inflation has exceeded wage growth. Even if inflation cools, is this enough? Or we will see workers say they are not even compensated for inflation.”

Part of the reason for the increase in wages is the same problems that are driving up the cost of goods. The demand is strong, but the supply of goods or personnel is insufficient.

‘Anyone can find a job’

Swonk said that, driven by strong growth in the leisure and hospitality industries, recruitment in December should increase across the board.

Tom Gimbel, CEO of Chicago-based LaSalle Network, said his recruitment company is busier than ever.

“Anyone can find a job they want. As we said in the Internet age, this is not the case. And I don’t think it’s [only] In the next 18 months. The company wants to hire people,” Kimbell said.

In mid-December, the company extended the working hours from home. Employees were also told to work from home for a few weeks, Just like the case of Goldman Sachs. Apple delayed its return Its company employees go to the office indefinitely.

Swank said the pandemic will definitely drag down employment growth in January. In addition to large companies sending workers home, small companies may even find it difficult to open a business because their employees are sick. These shutdowns will have a knock-on effect on the economy and the job market.

Swank said that New York has always been at the forefront of European and American light influence, and most companies announced that employees should work from home after the middle of the month. The government investigation of the employment report was completed within a week including December 12.

But she said that for January, the impact of Europe and the United States may mean that the number of employed people was flat or even negative.

She said: “The most important thing is that if you temporarily close a bunch of small businesses, then in the week of the survey, many small businesses will appear to have no payroll.” “This is the conflict between delta and omicron and the flu season. You will Lost salary.”

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of workers working from home decreased in November. The number of remote workers dropped by 0.3 percentage points to 11.3%.

Kimbell said that he expects some workers to return to work after next summer, many of whom are parents of young children and school-age children. The smoking cessation rate is still very high.

“People who are able to quit smoking are quitting. We have never seen this type of labor shortage before,” Kimbell said. “This labor shortage is due to one thing, only one thing, and that is the pandemic.”



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