Two economic indicators are worrying bulls Thursday morning. Here’s a look at what the dates mean for the Federal Reserveand finally the markets.
What happened: The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 6% in January compared to 6.5% in December Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The number was hot, beating the average economist estimate of 5.5%. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, PPI rose 0.7% versus estimates for a 0.4% increase.
The Labor Department at that time reported Jobless claims at 194k, down 1k from last week’s revised level. The number came in below average estimates of 200,000.
Why it matters: The data comes after the Labor Department on Tuesday reported a 6.4% year-on-year rise Consumer price index for Januarywhich is slightly down from December but hotter than economists had been forecasting.
Most experts agree that the CPI is not falling fast enough for the Fed to ease further. This week’s CPI follows two consecutive ones political swabs by the Fed, but this trend is all but guaranteed to stop at the next central bank meeting.
Related link: 3 Experts Agree: Inflation Is Not Falling Fast Enough For The Federal Reserve
Most are expecting another 0.25% rate hike in March, but Thursday’s data could push the Fed into a more aggressive 0.5% hike.
economist Mohamed El Erian said earlier this week the two-year Treasury yield is the best clue for what is to comeand it seems he was spot on.
After Thursday’s data, he pointed out that the economy remains resilient, suggesting this could prompt the Fed to do more.
“From lower-than-expected jobless claims to higher-than-expected PPI, today’s US data release is consistent with numbers over the past few weeks suggesting that the #Business remains robust,” El-Erian said via tweet.
Bill AdamsChief Economist at Comerica Bank, pointed out a lot of this…
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