Playing the Dating Game: Match Group and Bumble Adapt for Growth,…

Playing the Dating Game: Match Group and Bumble Adapt for Growth,…

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  • key bank Analyst Justin Patterson claims Match Group Inc MTCH if overweight, lower target price from $75 to $60.
  • repeats Patterson Bumblebee Inc BMBL if overweight, lower target price from $28 to $25.
  • The analyst sees potential for Match and Bumble to have better than feared footprints.
  • Match’s 2023 outlook anticipates Tinder to be driven more by monetization optimizations than net additions as the year progresses so far.
  • The analyst cut its revenue estimates by 2% and revised its operating income outlook by 6% to reflect weaker net additions, pricing starting to flow through the model, and legacy brands facing some headwinds from reduced marketing spend and macro sensitivity . He believes investors are largely expecting softer guidance.
  • Match’s price target reduction reflects the lower AOI forecast.
  • Tinder has launched its first global branding campaign and expects the benefits to extend into 2H23.
  • For Bumble, the analyst believes that internationality is the key driver of net adds and that there are still monetization levers in 2H23 to support the +16% to 19% Y/Y revenue growth target for 2023.
  • The analyst sees Bumble’s Q1 and Q2 in line with its revenue and EBITDA estimates.
  • Estimates for 2023 are unchanged primarily to reflect more robust Bumble growth.
  • Price promotions: MTCH shares traded 2.22% lower at $36.08 on the last check Monday. BMBL shares traded 2.94% lower at $17.68.
  • Photo by Solen Feyissa from Pixabay



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